TOTAL U.S. CASTING DEMAND FORECAST TO CONTRACT In 2000.
Modern Casting › Vol. 90 Nbr. 1, January 2000
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TOTAL U.S. CASTING DEMAND FORECAST TO CONTRACT In 2000.
U.S. casting shipments are expected to slip below 14 million tons this year as imports increase and demand slows in most market sectors.
Continuing surveys of econometric forecasters and economists support an original forecast for a short-term contraction of the economy. In the long-term, however, the forecast continues to be bullish, calling for a 10-year average annual growth rate of 1.5% for U.S. casting shipments. Among the trends affecting casting shipments are: * Production of light vehicles is forecast to decline to near the 11 million vehicle level after experiencing average annual production levels of 11.7 million vehicles for 6 years. Light trucks again appear to be heading for a good year. A rebound in passenger car sales is forecast in the long-term. Medium-to-heavy truck production is expected to return to the 320,000-unit level after a big year in '99. * Freight car production also is expected to drop to the 50,000-car level after 2 years at 70,000, leading to an overall decline in steel casting demand. * Continuing declines in machine tool, farm equipment and special machinery manufacturing also are expected to reduce castin...See the full content of this document
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